Market Wavers Amid Conflicting Reports on War

By Joe Mazzola

Wall Street tried to reverse early losses on hopes for progress toward ending the war. This contrasted with Friday's stall reflecting rate-hike worries and spiking oil amid concerns the war could heat up. Friday's struggles ended a six-week rally for the Nasdaq Composite on the last day of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term. The 10-year Treasury note yield jumped dramatically Friday as Kevin Warsh prepares to step in facing a plethora of challenges, though yields eased this morning.

"Higher yields are not necessarily a bull market killer, because it depends on why they are going up and the velocity of the move," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "Perhaps higher yields are just providing traders enough of an excuse to take profits following a six-week surge in stocks." Breaking through the 2023 cycle high for the 30-year yield near 5.17% would likely be a significant bearish development, and that yield hit 5.1% Friday. Yields have surged in the U.S. and abroad amid war-related inflation.

Beyond yields and the conflict, focus turns squarely toward earnings. The retail sector swings into action with Home Depot (HD) early tomorrow and Walmart (WMT) on Thursday. Last week's April retail sales—which pointed to more selective spending as consumers focus on value—might suggest positive tidings for Walmart and other discount retailers like Ross Stores (ROST), also reporting Thursday. Still, where markets ultimately go this week could depend a lot on how investors react to Nvidia's (NVDA) tidings late Wednesday.

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